Crude Daily Commentary for 3.17.09
Crude futures leapt from our 2nd tier downtrend line yesterday, logging impressive gains considering U. S. equities ended Monday's session with a brisk selloff. The futures are presently struggling with our 2nd tier uptrend line, but seem tempted to jump out to fresh gains on Tuesday.
It also seems a retest of the much anticipated $50/bbl level is imminent. If the crude futures can creep out of March highs and $50/bbl successively, we anticipate large near-term gains.
However, disregarding the optimism of present, we believe crude futures could be getting ahead of themselves. The previous supply cuts from OPEC are being priced in, implying we'd need a pickup in demand to send crude to new heights.
Seeing as production and consumption levels in the U. S. are still freefalling, crude futures need an uptick in economic data to keep the run going barring plans of a future OPEC cut. Nevertheless, the near-term appears sunny for crude futures with a hard-fought battle waiting at $50/bbl.
Fundamentally, we find supports of $47.41/bbl, $46.74bbl, $46.23/bbl, and $45.53/bbl. To the topside, we see resistances of $48.23/bbl, $48.59/bbl, $49.09/bbl, and $49.57/bbl. Crude futures are currently trading at $47.80/bbl.
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