IRFC Share Price jumped in today's session as the PSU reported its strongest quarterly results. IREDA, MRPL and REC were also major major gainers in the public sector space. IREDA share price closed at Rs 157.3 as the public sector major is planning to raise Rs 3,000 crores. TopNews Team has reviewed levels for short term investors and traders. IRFC could see higher levels as the stock has closed above a resistance level.

Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC): Record Results, Cautious Optimism

The first quarter of FY26 proved momentous for Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC). On July 22, 2025, the company unveiled a net profit of ₹1,745.69 crore—an 11% surge year-over-year—on revenues rising to ₹6,915 crore. This robust performance fueled a nearly 5% intraday jump in share price to ₹136.80, though the stock settled back at ₹135.21, a sign of persistent volatility.

Chairman and Managing Director Manoj Kumar Dubey lauded this as IRFC’s “strongest-ever quarterly performance,” attributing the results to disciplined financial stewardship and the company’s vital role in funding the Indian Railways’ far-reaching infrastructure mission.

Long-Term Strength vs. Short-Term Weakness:
Notwithstanding a staggering 551% return over the past three years, IRFC shares have corrected almost 35% in the last year as profit-taking and sector pressures mount. The counter now trades between ₹132–₹136, with price dipping below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages (₹138.4/₹138.2). This pattern signals a near-term bearish bias, according to technical research from Bonanza Portfolio.

Technical expert Drumil Vithlani urges investors to refrain from building fresh long positions until IRFC breaks decisively above ₹136. Instead, he prescribes a stop loss below ₹132 for existing holders, highlighting both the risk of further downside and the importance of technical discipline in this rangebound environment. As he notes, “negative indicators are outweighing near-term positive triggers,” with a falling trendline underscoring resistance and uncertainty.

In contrast, Anuj Gupta of Ya Wealth Global Research emphasizes IRFC’s support at ₹130—next strong support at ₹120—and advocates buying on dips for investors with a longer horizon. He identifies resistances at ₹145 and ₹160, expressing confidence in the company’s future given its fundamentals.

Market Consensus:
Despite the stellar quarter, wider analyst opinion is one of caution: the sole tracked brokerage rating remains a ‘Strong Sell’—unchanged over the last three months. While fundamentals remain unblemished and long-term prospects luminous, technicals caution against immediate bullishness.

No Major Strategic Announcements:
IRFC’s recent stock trend has been primarily shaped by technical and sectoral factors, with no significant policy or regulatory changes reported. Market capitalization remains hefty at over ₹1.76 trillion, cementing IRFC’s rank among Indian PSU finance titans.

REC Limited: Growth Ambitions, Guidance Revision, and Dividends

REC Limited has staged a nuanced performance, blending strong earnings and strategic clarity with a recalibrated growth outlook. During REC’s earnings call on May 14, 2025, management revised its asset growth guidance downward—from 15–17% AUM expansion to a tempered 11–13%, citing sectoral softness and macroeconomic headwinds.

Despite the caution, the March quarter showcased strong earnings:

Net profit: ₹4,236 crore (5.5% growth YoY)

Net Interest Income (NII): 37.6% growth—evidence of core operational momentum

Management reaffirmed its ambition to build a ₹10 lakh crore loan book by 2030, with a target of net zero NPAs by FY26 and margin guidance steady at 3.5–3.75%. Yet, markets reacted swiftly to the guidance cut: shares fell 3.2% to ₹288.80, a level now more than 40% below the 52-week high of ₹654.

Dividend Boost and Strategic Ventures:
On the shareholder rewards front, REC’s board declared a final dividend of ₹2.6 per share, taking cumulative FY2025 dividends to ₹18 per share. This payout provided partial respite to sentiment. Additionally, a newly announced joint venture between REC’s subsidiary and BHEL, aimed at advancing the renewable energy and infrastructure pipeline, aligned with the government’s push for sustainable growth.

Analyst Endorsements and Price Targets:
Optimism from marquee brokerages abounds:

ICICI Securities assigned a ‘Strong Buy’ with a price target of ₹600 (as of July 21, 2025)

Morgan Stanley sees potential for a 22% upside, citing regulatory tailwinds and competitive positioning under the new RBI norms

Technical signals tilt neutral to cautious in the near term, with cooling momentum following a period of outperformance. Notably, a 14-day moving average crossover has historically led to a 3.6% average gain within a week. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, the majority maintain a ‘Strong Buy’, eyeing substantial upside as fundamentals and valuations align. The consensus target of ₹521.86 (July 23, 2025) points to a >30% climb from trading levels then around ₹396.90.

Risks and Sentiment:
While the growth guidance cut remains a cloud on sentiment, REC’s robust fundamentals and sectoral opportunities—particularly in light of PSU and RBI regulatory focus—solidify its medium-term investment case. As of July 23, 2025, the company’s market capitalization stood at ₹104,578 crore.

IREDA: Operational Growth, Profit Pressure and Technical Troubles

Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA), after a dramatic rally exceeding 200% within a year, has come under pressure in 2025, registering a 28% correction year-to-date and sliding 41.3% over 12 months since its all-time high of ₹283. The share hovers about 16.6% above its 52-week low of ₹137, evidence of pronounced medium-term volatility and market caution.

Strong Lending Momentum, Weak Profitability:
Q1 FY26 yielded a mixed picture for IREDA. The agency reported:

Loan sanctions up 29% year-on-year to ₹11,740 crore

Disbursements up 31% to ₹6,981 crore

Outstanding loan book up 27% to ₹79,960 crore, reflecting rising demand across renewables, green hydrogen, and EV infrastructure

Despite operational strength, net profit for Q1 FY26 contracted sharply—down 36% year-on-year to ₹247 crore, primarily due to surging (60%) expenses and higher provisions against stressed assets. The result triggered a >6% drop in the share price in a single day.

Asset Recovery and Provisioning:
IREDA has launched insolvency and recovery efforts for over ₹730 crore, targeting two major NPA accounts (GEL and Gensol EV Lease) with aggressive legal action. Substantial provisioning has been made, yet asset quality doubts linger—an overhang impeding sentiment and near-term re-rating prospects.

Analyst Technical Insights:

Sudeep Shah (SBI Securities): Sees a bearish setup, with IREDA trading below all major moving averages, weak RSI (38.6), and negative MACD. Resistance is flagged at ₹185, support at ₹135—investors should await a clear breakout.

Ajit Mishra (Religare Broking): Highlights resistance between ₹175–₹180, warning of deeper corrections if ₹140 is breached.

Mandar Bhojane (Choice Broking): Views the stock as range-bound; a close above ₹170 is needed to reestablish upward momentum, while a fall below ₹153 could target ₹140.

Amit Trivedi (YES Securities): Only a breakout above ₹175 with strong volumes signals sustainable recovery.

Kunal Kamble (Bonanza Portfolio): Suggests any upward spike should be treated as an opportunity to sell absent technical reversal.

Current Technical and Sentiment Status:
The Q1 net profit drop has brought IREDA’s cost controls and asset quality into sharp focus. Share price action remains dominated by resistance at ₹170, ₹175, and ₹185—with no firm base yet established. The average analyst price target stands at ₹173 (as of July 11), underscoring limited upside. While two analysts maintain a ‘Buy’, consensus advises patience—waiting for confirmation of a technical base or breakout before new commitments.

Comparative Scorecard & Institutional Sentiment

Strategic Takeaways for Investors

IRFC: With record operational delivery but near-term technical clouds, investors are best served biding time; ‘buy on dips’ remains valid closer to major supports if earnings momentum continues.

REC: Following a pronounced correction, REC’s value proposition is drawing institutional interest. While upgraded targets indicate confidence, the recent guidance cut tempers bullish fervor—long-term holders, however, find a credible growth track.

IREDA: Operational growth is not translating into profit; unresolved asset quality challenges and adverse technical signals caution investors to wait for a confirmed reversal before deploying fresh capital.