Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 4.14.09
The 30 Year T-Bond futures are perking up pre-market on Tuesday after America's economic data disappointed. As a result, the 30 Year futures are flexing their negative correlation with U. S. equities.
Though the 30 Year futures have bounced from our 1st tier downtrend line, they haven't made any game-changing moves to awaken from the depths of their present downtrend.
The lack of follow through to the upside paints a distorted picture. On one hand, we could be witnessing insufficient demand in the bond market to compensate for the massive supply of treasuries created to fund the government's stimulus measures despite the Fed's use of quantitative easing.
On the other hand, the 30 Year's reluctance to the upside bolsters the argument for a recovery in U. S. equities, and consequently America's economy.
With a lack of evidence it's difficult to commit to one argument or the other, showing the 30 Year futures may be a lagging indicator right now. That being said, the 30 Year futures should continue their positive correlation with U. S. equities while remaining in a negative stance.
Fundamentally, we hold our resistances of 127.28, 127.64, 127.89, and 128.31 with fresh top-end of 128.73. To the downside, we find supports of 127.04 126.69, 126.45, 126.19, and 125.91. The 30 Year T-Bond futures are presently trading at 127 05.5.
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