USDJPY broke higher in the last few weeks and hit 102-103 area as highlighted few weeks back. This break occurred after a triangle in wave 4, and interesting thing is that move after that pattern is usually final within a larger trend, if we consider the Elliott Wave guidelines. As such, we are observing an ending diagonal placed in wave 5) that is showing first signs of completion around 103.70.

The reason is recent impulsive weakness towards the trend-line connected from early April. Break and daily close below it will put pair in bearish mode at least temporary.