Macau’s mass GGR expected to return to pre-covid levels during October Golden Week

Macau’s mass GGR expected to return to pre-covid levels during October Golden Week

Macau’s gaming revenue is believed to be poised for a full rebound during the upcoming holiday season, October golden Week, surging to levels similar to those witnessed during the pre-pandemic 2019 holiday season.

In its latest report, renowned investment bank JP Morgan made a significant prediction regarding Macau's casino gaming industry. The investment bank derived its forecast from its comprehensive channel checks, which revealed that China’s Special Administrative Region’s total gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first seventeen days of September amounted to MOP$8.1 billion (approx. $1.01 billion US dollars). This equated to a daily average of MOP$476 million, which signals a potential recovery in the gaming sector.

JP Morgan Analysts Selina Li, DS Kim and Mufan Shi said in the newly published report, “This implies a run-rate of between MOP$540 million and MOP$550 million per day over the past week compared with MOP$430 million during the first few weeks of the month when extreme weather events severely impacted the industry.”

The analysts also expressed optimism about the imminent Golden Week in the Chinese SAR. They expect both visitor numbers and cash flow to reach levels close to 85 per cent of what was observed during the Golden Week in 2019, with 100 per cent recovery in gross gaming income. In a separate note, the famed investment bank highlighted that the majority of investors would consider it a success if the number of visitors reaches 85 per cent or higher compared to pre-pandemic levels. They also stressed that recent trends and checks provide indication that achieving this target carries negligeable downside risk.

Macau’s gaming revenues have grown every month in the first eight months of this year, thanks to continuous increase in the number of tourists. In the first half of August, the Chinese SAR was visited by more than 100,000 tourists per day, easily surpassing even the government’s assumptions.

Tourists are really crucial for Macau's gaming industry, which underscores the importance of the upcoming October Golden Week – a mid-fall festival following the lunar calendar. This year, Golden Week will span from 29th of September to 6th October, encompassing China's National Day on 1st of October. The holiday season is well known for drawing a substantial influx of visitors to Macau, offering a substantial boost to casinos and other tourism-related businesses.

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