Tata Communications Share Price Target at Rs 2,130: ICICI Securities
ICICI Securities has maintained its BUY rating on Tata Communications with a sum-of-the-parts target price of Rs 2,130, implying about 21% upside from the current market price of Rs 1,764. The global connectivity and digital services provider reported September-quarter EBITDA of Rs 1,422 crore, up 21.2% year-on-year, as margins widened to 21.3%. Revenue rose 9.6% to Rs 6,688 crore, and the digital portfolio grew 18.6%. Losses in the digital business narrowed sharply, with its EBITDA margin improving to negative 3.6% from negative 6.9% a quarter earlier. The brokerage says AI-led enterprise demand and data-centre connectivity underpin the stock's growth outlook.
The quarter in numbers
Tata Communications delivered what ICICI Securities calls a strong second quarter of FY27. Consolidated revenue rose 9.6% year-on-year and 1.6% sequentially to Rs 6,688 crore. EBITDA climbed 21.2% to Rs 1,422 crore, and the margin expanded about 210 basis points to 21.3%, helped by lower personnel and operating costs. Reported net profit jumped 86.3% to Rs 341 crore.
The headline growth carries a currency tailwind. Rupee depreciation lifted the translated value of overseas revenue; adjusted for forex, data revenue grew about 6% year-on-year, while digital revenue still grew in double digits.
| Rs crore | Q2FY26 | Q1FY27 | Q2FY27 | QoQ | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,100 | 6,583 | 6,688 | +1.6% | +9.6% |
| EBITDA | 1,174 | 1,230 | 1,422 | +15.6% | +21.2% |
| EBITDA margin | 19.2% | 18.7% | 21.3% | +260 bps | +210 bps |
| Net income (reported) | 183 | 134 | 341 | +154.1% | +86.3% |
Digital strands: where the growth is running
Digital platforms and services revenue rose 18.6% to Rs 3,016 crore and now makes up more than 51% of gross data revenue. Core connectivity grew a steadier 6% to Rs 2,794 crore. In the bundle below, each strand's thickness tracks its quarterly revenue.
- Collaboration and CPaaS led the pack, with its AI platform Commotion gaining traction among interaction-business customers.
- Next-gen connectivity jumped 27.1%, and the report notes that network conversations have moved from procurement desks to chief technology officers.
- Cloud and security slipped 5.3% sequentially while the company shifts to its own Vayu cloud, and GPU availability has been a constraint.
- Media services fell 4.5% year-on-year, hit by events cancelled due to the West Asia conflict and normal lumpiness.
Surfacing toward breakeven
The most important line of the quarter was the digital portfolio's climb toward profitability. Its EBITDA margin improved to negative 3.6% from negative 6.9% in Q1FY27, implying a quarterly loss of roughly Rs 110 crore. Management is prioritising recurring, higher-margin revenue over growth for its own sake.
That helped the data business post EBITDA of Rs 1,142 crore, up 18.5% year-on-year, with the margin rising 280 bps to 19.7%. Part of the sequential jump reflects a one-off cost of about Rs 51 crore that weighed on Q1FY27.
Editor's Note: The report contains a few internal inconsistencies, which TopNews has resolved in favour of the detailed tables.
One bullet says cloud and security revenue "fell 6.2% YoY," but the segment table shows it rose 6.2% (Rs 469 crore to Rs 499 crore). This article uses the table.
The report says quarterly digital EBITDA "is now just" about Rs 110 crore, but with a negative 3.6% margin on about Rs 3,016 crore of revenue, that figure is a loss, not a profit.
The front-page financial summary lists net profit of Rs 934 crore for FY25 and Rs 1,142 crore for FY26 with EPS growth of −22.4% and +22.3%. The detailed P&L shows PAT of Rs 1,836 crore and Rs 1,002 crore, with EPS of Rs 64 and Rs 35, which matches the summary's own EPS row. This article uses the P&L figures. FY27E and FY28E numbers agree across both tables.
Work orders: the AI and data-centre pipeline
ICICI Securities identifies two megatrends behind its call: surging global network demand from data-centre connectivity, which is lifting subsea and terrestrial cable utilisation, and AI-driven enterprise demand spanning inferencing, enterprise intelligence and voice AI agents. Tata Communications is stitching GPU infrastructure, sovereign cloud and Commotion into a unified enterprise AI stack and charges a SaaS-style mix of platform and usage fees.
The B2B-only network spans more than 80,000 route km of terrestrial fibre and 30,000 route km of metro fibre, connecting 118 data centres over routes designed for predictable latency. The order book grew by strong double digits, with a bigger share from network and recurring business. Management reiterated double-digit EBITDA growth for FY27 and expects a stronger second half.
Elsewhere, Campaign Registry (TCR) doubled EBITDA year-on-year to Rs 178 crore at a 64.3% margin, while the voice business kept shrinking, with revenue down 8.8% to Rs 370 crore. Capex was Rs 663 crore, or 9.9% of revenue, mainly on undersea cables and data-centre-to-data-centre links. Net debt rose by about Rs 800 crore to Rs 11,197 crore after the dividend payout. The company has also reached an in-principle settlement with the Canada Revenue Agency on a long-running tax dispute at its Canadian subsidiary; the related contingent liability was Rs 1,660 crore as of March 2026.
Traceroute to Rs 2,130
ICICI Securities kept its estimates unchanged. It values the core business at 12x FY28E EV/EBITDA and the 26% data-centre stake at 15x, then deducts net debt and half of the pending AGR liability. Each hop below moves the valuation one step closer to the target.
On ICICI Securities' estimates, revenue rises to Rs 29,221 crore by FY28E, an 8.5% CAGR, while EBITDA grows faster at 13.8% to Rs 6,249 crore. PAT is projected at Rs 2,258 crore, with EPS of Rs 79.2. RoCE improves to 17.3%, and net debt to EBITDA falls to 1.3x.
| Peer (ICICI Sec) | Rating | CMP / TP (Rs) | P/E FY28E | EV/EBITDA FY28E | Pre-tax RoCE FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Communications | BUY | 1,764 / 2,130 | 22.3x | 9.3x | 23.1% |
| Bharti Airtel | BUY | 1,854 / 2,410 | 24.2x | 8.1x | 31.0% |
| Bharti Hexacom | BUY | 1,651 / 1,885 | 26.9x | 13.1x | 41.6% |
| Indus Towers | REDUCE | 382 / 350 | 12.6x | 6.6x | 17.9% |
| RailTel | REDUCE | 254 / 270 | 17.0x | 8.6x | 21.7% |
Risks, both ways
Downside risks (ICICI Securities)
Slower-than-expected execution in digital services revenue.
Continued investments that pressure margins.
Delays in turning around acquired businesses.
Upside risks (ICICI Securities)
Faster growth and margin expansion in digital services, especially AI-backed businesses.
A quicker turnaround of acquired businesses.
Delivery on guidance within the targeted timeframe.
Sources: ICICI Securities Ltd, Tata Communications Results Update dated Oct. 16, 2026 (Sanjesh Jain, Mohit Mishra, Vandan Dave); company data as cited in the report. Figures converted to Rs crore. The fibre-bundle widths are scaled to the report's segment revenue, the depth gauge plots its digital EBITDA margins, and the implied digital loss is a TopNews calculation from the reported margin and revenue.
Disclaimer: Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. This TopNews report summarises brokerage research and is not investment advice.
