Blinkit: profit, not just growth

The crown jewel is Blinkit, which the brokerage estimates grew net order value by 76 percent year on year in the September quarter. Crucially, it remains the only major quick-commerce operator at EBITDA-level profitability, and has held that profit even as rivals spend aggressively — proof, in the brokerage's view, of durable market positioning. Net order value is modelled to compound at 48.3 percent a year through FY29, as the dark-store count climbs toward 3,000 and assortment widens, lifting the EBITDA margin from a sliver today to about 3.1 percent of order value by FY29.

Food delivery: the dependable duopoly

The original business is now the steady one. Food-delivery order value is estimated to have risen about 21 percent year on year in the quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA margin near 5.6 percent of order value. The brokerage sees limited near-term threat to the two-player market structure and models roughly 20 percent annual order-value growth through FY29, helped by order volumes and a gradual rise in the average order value — a reliable source of cash that underpins group free cash flow.

Going-out: the next value lever

With the two core engines self-funding, attention turns to the going-out vertical — live events, dining-out and ticketing. Order value here is modelled to accelerate at a 38.1 percent compounding rate over FY26-29, reaching EBITDA break-even in FY28 and a margin of about 2.5 percent by FY29. Management guides to roughly Rs 26,700 crore of order value and about Rs 1,335 crore of adjusted EBITDA for the segment — an option the market is only beginning to price.

How the Rs 425 is built

The sum-of-the-parts puts Blinkit, now the largest single contributor, just ahead of food delivery, with going-out, cash and the Hyperpure supply arm rounding out the Rs 425 a share. Each circle below is sized by its contribution.

A TopNews rendering of the brokerage's SoTP; circle areas are proportional to each part's per-share value (components sum to ~Rs 425 on rounding).

The estimates underneath

Net revenue steps up sharply from FY25 to FY26 as Blinkit's inventory-led model is consolidated; the cleaner read on momentum is net order value growth and the EBITDA trajectory.

The target for investors

The investment logic has shifted from "will it ever make money" to "how fast does the cash compound." With Blinkit profitable and scaling at nearly 50 percent a year, food delivery a steady cash cow, and going-out approaching break-even, group EBITDA is modelled to leap from Rs 1,208 crore in FY26 toward Rs 7,453 crore by FY28, lifting return on equity to nearly 14 percent. On a three-stage discounted-cash-flow and sum-of-the-parts basis, ICICI Securities raises its target to Rs 425 — about 29 percent above the current price — as it rolls the valuation forward six months. The earnings multiple remains optically steep, a function of a business still early in its margin journey; for investors, this is a high-conviction growth holding best accumulated with a multi-year view.